DATABIO FISHERIES VI
PILOT : SMALL PELAGIC MARKET PREDICTIONS AND TRACEABILITY
DATA – DRIVEN BIOECONOMY
CONTACT NAME KARL-JOHANN REITE
PILOT PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
The goal of this pilot is to provide information for predicting the development of various market segments, so that the fisheries may be targeted against the most beneficial fisheries. This pilot will also act as a basis for providing the consumers with information about the products, so that he/she can take into consideration quantitative aspects such as sustainability, environmental impact, energy consumption per kg of fish, etc. This could be presented either directly or through sustainable seafood certification labels such as those provided by Marine Stewardship Council1, which today is found on more than 20,000 seafood products. More than half of the Norwegian fisheries are already MSC-certified, but there are relatively few MSC-certified seafood products found in Norway as the neighbouring countries Denmark and Sweden has roughly 5 times more.
The basis for the market predictions will be to combine as many data sources as possible which may be related to the market situation. For each market segment this could be such information as:
- The predicted volume of species in question.
- Financial factors (both international and for single country).
- The state of competing fish stocks and predicted fished volume of these.
- The local weather forecasts.
- The prices of alternative food.
Using historical data, machine learning will be employed to model consumption habits in certain areas, as well as the relation between market development and other factors. These models will then be used for providing predictions for how various market segments will develop in the future.
To provide information which can describe the fish products with respect to e.g. quality and environmental footprint, local vessel measurements will be combined with data such as catch reports including quality data and fish stock sustainability level.
Norges Sildesalgslag has a database with information about all pelagic catches that is landed in Norway the last decades which will be accessible for the pilot. Additionally, the associated partner, the Norwegian Seafood Council, which works together with the fisheries and aquaculture industry to develop markets for Norwegian seafood, will provide the pilot with market insight data, statistics, trade information, consumption and consumer insight.
This pilot will focus on the small pelagic fisheries in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the main stakeholders will be Norges Sildesalgslag (Sildes), which is the world’s largest marketplace for pelagic fish, and all the market players in the fisheries sector. The main research partner will be SINTEF Ocean. All the players along the value chain from catch to consumer will benefit from this pilot, from the fishing vessels companies, processing companies, markets players and finally the consumer.
OBJETIVE OF THE PILOT
The main motivation for this pilot is:
- Primarily to provide a service where market information and results from predictive analytic results from market data is presented for pelagic fishery stakeholders to optimize catch revenue for the near future. There is a large potential for using machine learning in small pelagic fisheries to optimize catch revenue through estimating price prediction models by using all the relevant data available which will be the approach pursued in this pilot.
- Secondarily to raise the awareness of the consumer on sustainable fisheries and seafood products by making relevant catch and stock information publicly available, and informing about sustainable labels such as MSC.
KPIS AND METRICS
The main KPIs of the pilot are:
- Model correctness: price prediction success ratio having an acceptable error rate when tested on historic data that it was not trained on.
- Revenue potential with alternative catch strategy vs. what happened: Quantify increased revenue potential on historical data, .e.g. what was the accumulated value, vs what could have been achieved on catching alternative species.
- System usage: Number of users of the market information service in pelagic fisheries, and number of users, including growth rate, visiting the website with information about. Note that this takes time to establish, and for this project, a baseline can be measured first, then followed by monitoring usage after system deployment.